Dynamics of host populations affected by the emerging fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans.

ABSTRACT: Emerging infectious diseases cause extirpation of wildlife populations. We use an epidemiological model to explore the effects of a recently emerged disease caused by the salamander-killing chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) on host populations, and to evaluate which mitigation measures are most likely to succeed. As individuals do not recover from Bsal, we used a model with the states susceptible, latent and infectious, and parametrized the model using data on host and pathogen taken from the literature and expert opinion. The model suggested that disease outbreaks can occur at very low host densities (one female per hectare). This density is far lower than host densities in the wild. Therefore, all naturally occurring populations are at risk.

SUBMITTER: Schmidt BR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5383822 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature