Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Confirmed local transmission of Zika Virus (ZIKV) in Texas and Florida have heightened the need for early and accurate indicators of self-sustaining transmission in high risk areas across the southern United States. Given ZIKV's low reporting rates and the geographic variability in suitable conditions, a cluster of reported cases may reflect diverse scenarios, ranging from independent introductions to a self-sustaining local epidemic.

Methods

We present a quantitative framework for real-time ZIKV risk assessment that captures uncertainty in case reporting, importations, and vector-human transmission dynamics.

Results

We assessed county-level risk throughout Texas, as of summer 2016, and found that importation risk was concentrated in large metropolitan regi

SUBMITTER: Castro LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5415743 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature