A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

ABSTRACT: Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because

SUBMITTER: Cotto O 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5424169 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature