How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries.

Methods

We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year peri

SUBMITTER: Etkind SN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5436458 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature