Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

ABSTRACT: Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning.

SUBMITTER: Chen BK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5451156 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature