An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to Streptococcus pneumoniae.

ABSTRACT: The frequency of resistance to antibiotics in Streptococcus pneumoniae has been stable over recent decades. For example, penicillin non-susceptibility in Europe has fluctuated between 12% and 16% without any major time trend. In spite of long-term stability, resistance fluctuates over short time scales, presumably in part due to seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic prescriptions. Here, we develop a model that describes the evolution of antibiotic resistance under selection by multiple antibiotics prescribed at seasonally changing rates. This model was inspired by, and fitted to, published data on monthly antibiotics prescriptions and frequency of resistance in two communities in Israel over 5 years. Seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic usage translate into small fluctuations of the frequency

SUBMITTER: Blanquart F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5454275 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature