Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting.

Methodology/principle findings

Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño So

SUBMITTER: Chuang TW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5456348 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature