Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure account

SUBMITTER: Li SL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5465899 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature