Modelling environmental drivers of black band disease outbreaks in populations of foliose corals in the genus Montipora.

ABSTRACT: Seawater temperature anomalies associated with warming climate have been linked to increases in coral disease outbreaks that have contributed to coral reef declines globally. However, little is known about how seasonal scale variations in environmental factors influence disease dynamics at the level of individual coral colonies. In this study, we applied a multi-state Markov model (MSM) to investigate the dynamics of black band disease (BBD) developing from apparently healthy corals and/or a precursor-stage, termed 'cyanobacterial patches' (CP), in relation to seasonal variation in light and seawater temperature at two reef sites around Pelorus Island in the central sector of the Great Barrier Reef. The model predicted that the proportion of colonies transitioning from BBD to Healthy state

SUBMITTER: Chen CCM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5470580 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature