Modelling community-control strategies to protect hospital resources during an influenza pandemic in Ottawa, Canada.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A novel influenza virus has emerged to produce a global pandemic four times in the past one hundred years, resulting in millions of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. There is substantial uncertainty about when, where and how the next influenza pandemic will occur.

Methods

We developed a novel mathematical model to chart the evolution of an influenza pandemic. We estimate the likely burden of future influenza pandemics through health and economic endpoints. An important component of this is the adequacy of existing hospital-resource capacity. Using a simulated population reflective of Ottawa, Canada, we model the potential impact of a future influenza pandemic under different combinations of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Results

SUBMITTER: Saunders-Hastings P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5470707 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature