Monitoring the fitness of antiviral-resistant influenza strains during an epidemic: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Antivirals (eg, oseltamivir) are important for mitigating influenza epidemics. In 2007, an oseltamivir-resistant influenza seasonal A H1N1 strain emerged and spread to global fixation within 1 year. This event showed that antiviral-resistant (AVR) strains can be intrinsically more transmissible than their contemporaneous antiviral-sensitive (AVS) counterpart. Surveillance of AVR fitness is therefore essential. Our objective was to develop a simple method for estimating AVR fitness from surveillance data.

Methods

We defined the fitness of AVR strains as their reproductive number relative to their co-circulating AVS counterparts. We developed a simple method for real-time estimation of AVR fitness from surveillance data. This method requires only information on gene

SUBMITTER: Leung K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5470942 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature