Regular biennial cycles in epidemics caused by parametric resonance.

ABSTRACT: The interaction between nonlinearity and seasonal forcing in childhood infectious diseases often leads to multiyear cycles with large amplitude. Regular biennial cycles in particular were observed in measles reports throughout the world. The objective of this paper is to understand the mechanism of such biennial cycles, especially the conditions under which the large amplitude biennial oscillation might appear. It is proposed that such biennial cycles are caused by parametric resonance, which might occur when varying the parameter at a frequency close to twice the natural frequency of the system. The analysis is carried out by solving an SIR model semi-analytically using method of multiple scales (MMS). This analysis shows how parametric resonance occurs due to the interaction between nonl

SUBMITTER: Chen S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5473521 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature