Focus expansion and stability of the spread parameter estimate of the power law model for dispersal gradients.

ABSTRACT: Empirical and mechanistic modeling indicate that pathogens transmitted via aerially dispersed inoculum follow a power law, resulting in dispersive epidemic waves. The spread parameter (b) of the power law model, which is an indicator of the distance of the epidemic wave front from an initial focus per unit time, has been found to be approximately 2 for several animal and plant diseases over a wide range of spatial scales under conditions favorable for disease spread. Although disease spread and epidemic expansion can be influenced by several factors, the stability of the parameter b over multiple epidemic years has not been determined. Additionally, the size of the initial epidemic area is expected to be strongly related to the final epidemic extent for epidemics, but the sta

SUBMITTER: Ojiambo PS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5480396 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature