Uncertainty quantification in breast cancer risk prediction models using self-reported family health history.

ABSTRACT: Introduction. Family health history (FHx) is an important factor in breast and ovarian cancer risk assessment. As such, multiple risk prediction models rely strongly on FHx data when identifying a patient's risk. These models were developed using verified information and when translated into a clinical setting assume that a patient's FHx is accurate and complete. However, FHx information collected in a typical clinical setting is known to be imprecise and it is not well understood how this uncertainty may affect predictions in clinical settings. Methods. Using Monte Carlo simulations and existing measurements of uncertainty of self-reported FHx, we show how uncertainty in FHx information can alter risk classification when used in typical clinical settings. Results. We

SUBMITTER: Pflieger LT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5483939 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature