Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006-2014.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to identify circulating influenza virus strains and vulnerable population groups and investigate the distribution and seasonality of influenza viruses in Ningbo, China. Then, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for prediction was established. Influenza surveillance data for 2006-2014 were obtained for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) (n = 129,528) from the municipal Centers for Disease Control and virus surveillance systems of Ningbo, China. The ARIMA model was proposed to predict the expected morbidity cases from January 2015 to December 2015. Of the 13,294 specimens, influenza virus was detected in 1148 (8.64%) samples, including 951 (82.84%) influenza type A and 197 (17.16%) influenza type B viruses; the influenza virus isolation rate was stro

SUBMITTER: Wang C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5486245 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature