Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity.

ABSTRACT: Since Chaney's report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO₂-from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater -remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models' intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience grea

SUBMITTER: Hu X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5487336 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature