Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

ABSTRACT: We develop a discrete variant of a general model for adult mortality influenced by the delayed impact of early conditions on adult health and mortality. The discrete variant of the model builds on an intuitively appealing interpretation of conditions that induce delayed effects and is an extension of the discrete form of the standard frailty model with distinct implications. We show that introducing delayed effects is equivalent to perturbing adult mortality patterns with a particular class of time-/age-varying frailty. We emphasize two main results. First, populations with delayed effects could experience unchanging or increasing adult mortality even when background mortality has been declining for long periods of time. Although this phenomenon also occurs in a regime with standard frailt

SUBMITTER: Palloni A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5490246 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature