Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Reliable estimation of future trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability is crucial for ageing societies. Previous forecasts have not considered the potential impact of trends in disease incidence. The present prediction model combines population trends in cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability in England and Wales up to 2025.

Methods

We developed and validated the IMPACT-Better Ageing Model-a probabilistic model that tracks the population aged 35-100 years through ten health states characterised by the presence or absence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability (difficulty with one or more activities of daily living) or death up to 2025, by use of evidence-

SUBMITTER: Guzman-Castillo M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5500313 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature