Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

ABSTRACT: Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model

SUBMITTER: Munoz AG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5506221 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature