Effects of reactive social distancing on the 1918 influenza pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral response where individuals avoid potentially infectious contacts in response to available information on an ongoing epidemic or pandemic. We modelled its effects on the three influenza waves in the United Kingdom. In previous studies, human behavioral response was modelled by a Power function of the proportion of recent influenza mortality in a population, and by a Hill function, which is a function of the number of recent influenza mortality. Using a simple epidemic model with a Power function and one common set of parameters, we provided a good model fit for the observed multiple epidemic waves in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool. We further

SUBMITTER: Yu D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5507503 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature