Dataset Information

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy.

Methods

Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination.

Results

The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351).

Conclusions

We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.

SUBMITTER: Custodio A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5518851 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

Custodio A A Carmona-Bayonas A A Jiménez-Fonseca P P Sánchez M L ML Viudez A A Hernández R R Cano J M JM Echavarria I I Pericay C C Mangas M M Visa L L Buxo E E García T T Rodríguez Palomo A A Álvarez Manceñido F F Lacalle A A Macias I I Azkarate A A Ramchandani A A Fernández Montes A A López C C Longo F F Sánchez Bayona R R Limón M L ML Díaz-Serrano A A Hurtado A A Madero R R Gómez C C Gallego J J

British journal of cancer 20170502 12

<h4>Background</h4>To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy.<h4>Methods</h4>Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based cal ...[more]

PMID: 28463962

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Project description:Bevacizumab, combined with platinum-based chemotherapy, has been widely used in the treatment of advanced-stage lung adenocarcinoma (LADC). Although KRAS (V-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog) mutation is the most common genetic alteration in human LADC and its role in promoting angiogenesis has been well established, its prognostic and predictive role in the above setting remains unclear. The association between KRAS exon 2 mutational status and clinicopathological variables including progression-free survival and overall survival (PFS and OS, respectively) was retrospectively analyzed in 501 Caucasian stage IIIB-IV LADC patients receiving first-line platinum-based chemotherapy (CHT) with or without bevacizumab (BEV). EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor)-mutant cases were excluded. Of 247 BEV/CHT and 254 CHT patients, 95 (38.5%) and 75 (29.5%) had mutations in KRAS, respectively. KRAS mutation was associated with smoking (p = 0.008) and female gender (p = 0.002) in the BEV/CHT group. We found no difference in OS between patients with KRAS-mutant versus KRAS wild-type tumors in the CHT-alone group (p = 0.6771). Notably, patients with KRAS-mutant tumors demonstrated significantly shorter PFS (p = 0.0255) and OS (p = 0.0186) in response to BEV/CHT compared to KRAS wild-type patients. KRAS mutation was an independent predictor of shorter PFS (hazard ratio, 0.597; p = 0.011) and OS (hazard ratio, 0.645; p = 0.012) in the BEV/CHT group. G12D KRAS-mutant patients receiving BEV/CHT showed significantly shorter PFS (3.7 months versus 8.27 months in the G12/13x group; p = 0.0032) and OS (7.2 months versus 16.1 months in the G12/13x group; p = 0.0144). In this single-center, retrospective study, KRAS-mutant LADC patients receiving BEV/CHT treatment exhibited inferior PFS and OS compared to those with KRAS wild-type advanced LADC. G12D mutations may define a subset of KRAS-mutant LADC patients unsuitable for antiangiogenic therapy with BEV.

Dataset Information

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.

Similar Datasets

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