Dataset Information

Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study.

ABSTRACT: To address the need for personalized prevention, we conducted a subject-level meta-analysis within the framework of the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) study to develop a risk prediction model for heart failure (HF) based on routinely available clinical measurements. Three studies with elderly persons (Health Aging and Body Composition [Health ABC], Valutazione della PREvalenza di DIsfunzione Cardiaca asinTOmatica e di scompenso cardiaco [PREDICTOR], and Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk [PROSPER]) were included to develop the HF risk function, while a fourth study (Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial [ASCOT]) was used as a validation cohort. Time-to-event analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazard model. Incident HF was defined as HF hospitalization. The Cox regression model was evaluated for its discriminatory performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (Grønnesby-Borgan χ2 statistic). During a follow-up of 3.5 years, 470 of 10 236 elderly persons (mean age, 74.5 years; 51.3% women) developed HF. Higher age, BMI, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, serum creatinine, smoking, diabetes mellitus, history of coronary artery disease, and use of antihypertensive medication were associated with increased HF risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.71, with a good calibration (χ2 7.9, P=0.54). A web-based calculator was developed to allow easy calculations of the HF risk. Simple measurements allow reliable estimation of the short-term HF risk in populations and patients. The risk model may aid in risk stratification and future HF prevention strategies.

SUBMITTER: Jacobs L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5524083 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study.

Jacobs Lotte L Efremov Ljupcho L Ferreira João Pedro JP Thijs Lutgarde L Yang Wen-Yi WY Zhang Zhen-Yu ZY Latini Roberto R Masson Serge S Agabiti Nera N Sever Peter P Delles Christian C Sattar Naveed N Butler Javed J Cleland John G F JGF Kuznetsova Tatiana T Staessen Jan A JA Zannad Faiez F

Journal of the American Heart Association 20170502 5

<h4>Background</h4>To address the need for personalized prevention, we conducted a subject-level meta-analysis within the framework of the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) study to develop a risk prediction model for heart failure (HF) based on routinely available clinical measurements.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Three studies with elderly persons (Health Aging and Body Composition [Health ABC], <i>Valutazione della PREvalenza di DIsfunzione Cardiaca asinTOmatica e di scompenso cardiaco</i> [PRE ...[more]

PMID: 28465299

Similar Datasets

Project description:AimsIn people at risk of heart failure (HF) enrolled in the Heart 'OMics' in AGEing (HOMAGE) trial, spironolactone reduced circulating markers of collagen synthesis, natriuretic peptides, and blood pressure and improved cardiac structure and function. In the present report, we explored factors associated with dyskalaemia.Methods and resultsThe HOMAGE trial was an open-label study comparing spironolactone (up to 50 mg/day) versus standard care in people at risk for HF. After randomization, serum potassium was assessed at 1 and 9 months and was defined as low when ≤3.5 mmol/L (hypokalaemia) and high when ≥5.5 mmol/L (hyperkalaemia). Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to identify clinical predictors of dyskalaemia. A total of 513 participants (median age 74 years, 75% men, median estimated glomerular filtration rate 71 mL/min/1.73 m2 ) had serum potassium available and were included in this analysis. At randomization, 88 had potassium < 4.0 mmol/L, 367 had potassium 4.0-5.0 mmol/L, and 58 had potassium > 5.0 mmol/L. During follow-up, on at least one occasion, a serum potassium < 3.5 mmol/L was observed in 6 (1.2%) and <4.0 mmol/L in 46 (9%) participants, while a potassium > 5.0 mmol/L was observed in 38 (8%) and >5.5 mmol/L in 5 (1.0%) participants. The median (percentile25-75 ) increase in serum potassium with spironolactone during the study was 0.23 (0.16; 0.29) mmol/L. Because of the low incidence of dyskalaemia, for regression analysis, hypokalaemia and hyperkalaemia thresholds were set at <4.0 and >5.0 mmol/L, respectively. The occurrence of a serum potassium > 5.0 mmol/L during follow-up was positively associated with the presence of diabetes mellitus {odds ratio [OR]: 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.14; 3.79]} and randomization to spironolactone (OR: 2.83 [95% CI 1.49; 5.37]). Conversely, the occurrence of a potassium concentration < 4.0 mmol/L was positively associated with the use of thiazides (OR: 2.39 [95% CI 1.32; 4.34]), blood urea concentration (OR: 2.15 [95% CI 1.34; 3.39] per 10 mg/dL), and history of hypertension (OR: 2.32 [95% CI 1.02; 5.29]) and negatively associated with randomization to spironolactone (OR: 0.30 [95% CI 0.18; 0.52]).ConclusionsIn people at risk for developing HF and with relatively normal renal function, spironolactone reduced the risk of hypokalaemia and, at the doses used, was not associated with the occurrence of clinically meaningful hyperkalaemia.

Project description:ObjectivesThis study sought to identify modifiable risk factors and estimate the impact of risk factor modification on heart failure (HF) risk in women with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF).BackgroundIncident HF is the most common nonfatal event in patients with AF, although strategies for HF prevention are lacking.MethodsWe assessed 34,736 participants in the Women's Health Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox models with time-varying assessment of risk factors after AF diagnosis were used to identify significant modifiable risk factors for incident HF.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 20.6 years, 1,495 women developed AF without prevalent HF. In multivariable models, new-onset AF was associated with an increased risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.52 to 10.85). Once women with AF developed HF, all-cause (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.45) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.70 to 4.85) increased. In time-updated, multivariable models accounting for changes in risk factors after AF diagnosis, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, current tobacco use, and diabetes mellitus were each associated with incident HF. The combination of these 4 modifiable risk factors accounted for an estimated 62% (95% CI: 23% to 83%) of the population-attributable risk of HF. Compared with women with 3 or 4 risk factors, those who maintained or achieved optimal risk factor control had a progressive decreased risk of HF (HR for 2 risk factors: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95; 1 risk factor: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.63; and 0 risk factors: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.29).ConclusionsIn women with new-onset AF, modifiable risk factors including obesity, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes accounted for the majority of the population risk of HF. Optimal levels of modifiable risk factors were associated with decreased HF risk. Prospective assessment of risk factor modification at the time of AF diagnosis may warrant future investigation.

Project description:BackgroundHeart failure (HF) hospitalization places patients at increased short-term risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Long-term risk for VTE associated with incident HF, HF subtypes, or structural heart disease is unknown.ObjectivesIn the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) cohort, VTE risk associated with incident HF, HF subtypes, and abnormal echocardiographic measures in the absence of clinical HF was assessed.MethodsDuring follow-up, ARIC identified incident HF and subcategorized HF with preserved ejection fraction or reduced ejection fraction. At the fifth clinical examination, echocardiography was performed. Physicians adjudicated incident VTE using hospital records. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between HF or echocardiographic exposures and VTE.ResultsOver a mean of 22 years in 13,728 subjects, of whom 2,696 (20%) developed incident HF, 729 subsequent VTE events were identified. HF was associated with increased long-term risk for VTE (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.13; 95% confidence interval: 2.58 to 3.80). In 7,588 subjects followed for a mean of 10 years, the risk for VTE was similar for HF with preserved ejection fraction (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.71; 95% CI: 2.94 to 7.52) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (adjusted hazard ratio: 5.53; 95% confidence interval: 3.42 to 8.94). In 5,438 subjects without HF followed for a mean of 3.5 years, left ventricular relative wall thickness and mean left ventricular wall thickness were independent predictors of VTE.ConclusionsIn this prospective population-based study, incident hospitalized HF (including both heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and reduced ejection fraction), as well as echocardiographic indicators of left ventricular remodeling, were associated with greatly increased risk for VTE, which persisted through long-term follow-up. Evidence-based strategies to prevent long-term VTE in patients with HF, beyond time of hospitalization, are needed.

Dataset Information

Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study.

Publications

Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets