Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

ABSTRACT: Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth syst

SUBMITTER: Chikamoto Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5529505 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature