Data-driven interdisciplinary mathematical modelling quantitatively unveils competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Co-circulation of influenza strains is common to seasonal epidemics and pandemic emergence. Competition was considered involved in the vicissitudes of co-circulating influenza strains but never quantitatively studied at the human population level. The main purpose of the study was to explore the competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains in a quantitative way.

Methods

We constructed a heterogeneous dynamic transmission model and ran the model to fit the weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate through an influenza season. The construction process started on the 2007-2008 single-clade influenza season and, with the contribution from the clade-based A/H1N1 epidemiological curves, advanced to the 2008-2009 two-clade influenza season. Pearson method

SUBMITTER: Ho BS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5534049 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature