A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions.

ABSTRACT: Uncertainty about future spread of invasive organisms hinders planning of effective response measures. We present a two-stage scenario optimization model that accounts for uncertainty about the spread of an invader, and determines survey and eradication strategies that minimize the expected program cost subject to a safety rule for eradication success. The safety rule includes a risk standard for the desired probability of eradication in each invasion scenario. Because the risk standard may not be attainable in every scenario, the safety rule defines a minimum proportion of scenarios with successful eradication. We apply the model to the problem of allocating resources to survey and eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) after its discovery in the Greater Tor

SUBMITTER: Yemshanov D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5536277 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature