Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.

ABSTRACT: Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may

SUBMITTER: Siraj AS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5536440 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature