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"Super Bowl Babies": Do Counties with Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience Increases in Births Nine Months Later?

ABSTRACT: Following the claim of a highly publicized National Football League (NFL) commercial, we test whether the Super Bowl provides a positive exogenous shock to fertility in counties of winning teams. Using stadium locations to identify teams' counties, we analyze the number of births in counties of both winning and losing teams for ten recent Super Bowls. We also test for state effects and general effects of the NFL playoffs. Overall, our results show no clear pattern of increases in the number of births in winning counties nine months after the Super Bowl. We also do not find that births are affected at the state level or that counties competing in the playoffs are affected. Altogether, these results cast doubt on the NFL's claim that winning cities experience increases in births nine months after the Super Bowl.

SUBMITTER: Hayward GM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5548444 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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"Super Bowl Babies": Do Counties with Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience Increases in Births Nine Months Later?

Hayward George M GM Rybińska Anna A

Socius : sociological research for a dynamic world 20170101

Following the claim of a highly publicized National Football League (NFL) commercial, we test whether the Super Bowl provides a positive exogenous shock to fertility in counties of winning teams. Using stadium locations to identify teams' counties, we analyze the number of births in counties of both winning and losing teams for ten recent Super Bowls. We also test for state effects and general effects of the NFL playoffs. Overall, our results show no clear pattern of increases in the number of b ...[more]

PMID: 28804762

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Project description:BackgroundAfter the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986, a drop in birth-rate was found in several European countries in the first quarter of 1987. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether a similar drop in live births occurred in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear accident.Data and methodsA study region was defined consisting of Fukushima prefecture plus 10 nearby prefectures. The observed monthly numbers of live births (LB) in October 2011 through December 2012 were compared with the predicted numbers determined from the trend of live births in the remaining months from January 2006 through December 2018. The study region was divided into Fukushima plus three adjacent prefectures (Area A, assumed effective mean dose in the first year 1 mSv) and seven surrounding prefectures (Area B, 0.5 mSv). The rest of Japan (Area C) served as the comparison (control) region (0.1 mSv). A combined regression of live births (LB) in areas A, B, C was conducted with individual trend parameters but common parameters for monthly variations.ResultsIn the study region as a whole (areas A and B combined) a highly significant 9.1% (95% CI: -12.2%, -6.0%) drop in LB was found in December 2011. Reduced numbers of live births were also observed in October-November 2011 (-3.3%, p = 0.006), i.e. in births exposed early in pregnancy. In the second quarter of 2012, i.e. in live births conceived more than 3 months after the Fukushima accident, the decrease was greater (-4.3%, p < 0.001) than in the first quarter (-1.6%, p = 0.11). i.e. in those conceived within the first three months after the accident while no significant decrease was detected in the third (-0.7%, p = 0.44) and fourth (-0.5%, p = 0.62) quarters. The effect in Dec 2011 was greater in Area A with -14.0 (-17.6, -10.3) % than in Area B with -7.8 (-11.1, -4.5) % and non-significant in Area C with -1.3 (-4.2, +1.6) %, p = 0.38. The combined regression of the data in areas A, B, and C found a highly significant association of the effect in December 2011 with radiation dose. Conclusion: It is suggested that the observed drop in LB in December 2011 may reflect early deaths of the conceptus from high radiation exposure following the triple meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 12-15, 2011.

Project description:Background/aimsRecruitment and retention of research participants are challenging and critical components of successful clinical trials and natural history studies. Infants with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) have been a particularly challenging population to study due to their fragile and complex medical issues, poor prognosis and, until 2016, a lack of effective therapies. Recruitment of healthy infants into clinical trials and natural history studies is also challenging and sometimes assumed to not be feasible.MethodsIn 2011, our group initiated a two-year, longitudinal natural history study of infants with SMA and healthy infant controls to provide data to assist in the analysis and interpretation of planned clinical trials in infants with SMA. The recruitment goal was to enroll 27 infants less than 6 months of age with SMA and 27 age-matched healthy infants within the two-year enrollment period. A detailed recruitment and retention plan was developed for this purpose. In addition, a survey was administered to participant families to understand the determinants of participation in the study.ResultsAll healthy infants were recruited within the study's first year and 26 SMA infants were recruited within the two-year recruitment period. Thirty-eight participant families responded to the recruitment determinants survey. Nearly half of respondents (18/38, 48%) reported that they first heard of the study from their physician or neurologist. The most common reason to decide to enroll their infant (22/38, 58%) and to remain in the study (28/38, 74%) was their understanding of the importance of the study. Thematic recruitment tools such as a study brochure, video on social media, and presentations at advocacy meetings were reported to positively influence the decision to enroll.ConclusionsA proactive, thematic and inclusive recruitment and retention plan that effectively communicates the rationale of a clinical study and partners with patients, advocacy groups and the local communities can effectively recruit participants in vulnerable populations. Recommendations for the proactive integration of recruitment and retention plans into clinical trial protocol development are provided.

Dataset Information

"Super Bowl Babies": Do Counties with Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience Increases in Births Nine Months Later?

Publications

"Super Bowl Babies": Do Counties with Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience Increases in Births Nine Months Later?

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