Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.

ABSTRACT: The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In

SUBMITTER: Astrom C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5551179 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature