Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China: A time series analysis (1970-2012).

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Influence of meteorological variables on the transmission of bacillary dysentery (BD) is under investigated topic and effective forecasting models as public health tool are lacking. This paper aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases in Beijing and to establish an effective forecasting model.

Methods

A time series analysis was conducted in the Beijing area based upon monthly data on weather variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed) and on the number of BD cases during the period 1970-2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) were built based on the data from 1970 to 2004. Prediction of monthly BD cases from 2005 to 2012 was made u

SUBMITTER: Yan L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552134 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature