Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each

SUBMITTER: Hirata A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552256 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature