Risk stratification in compartmental epidemic models: Where to draw the line?

ABSTRACT: Economic evaluations of infectious disease control interventions frequently use dynamic compartmental epidemic models. Such models capture heterogeneity in risk of infection by stratifying the population into discrete risk groups, thus approximating what is typically continuous variation in risk. An important open question is whether and how different risk stratification choices influence model predictions of intervention effects. We develop equivalent Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) dynamic transmission models: an unstratified model, a model stratified into a high-risk and low-risk group, and a model with an arbitrary number of risk groups. Absent intervention, the models produce the same overall prevalence of infected individuals in steady state. We consider an intervention that e

SUBMITTER: Suen SC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5555315 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature