Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV.

Methods

An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a f

SUBMITTER: Van Effelterre T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5557237 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature