Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory.

ABSTRACT: We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatur

SUBMITTER: Mostl C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5601179 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature