Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

ABSTRACT: Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

SUBMITTER: Prem K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5609774 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature