Detecting a Surprisingly Low Transmission Distance in the Early Phase of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The spread of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in England was characterized by two major waves of infections: the first one was highly spatially localized (mainly in the London area), while the second one spread homogeneously through the entire country. The reasons behind this complex spatiotemporal dynamics have yet to be clarified. In this study, we perform a Bayesian analysis of five models entailing different hypotheses on the possible determinants of the observed pattern. We find a consensus among all models in showing a surprisingly low transmission distance (defined as the geographic distance between the place of residence of the infectors and her/his infectees) during the first wave: about 1.5 km (2.2 km if infections linked to household and school transmission are excluded). The b

SUBMITTER: Marziano V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5615056 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature