Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal influenza is a serious public health and societal problem due to its consequences resulting from absenteeism, hospitalizations, and deaths. The overall burden of influenza is captured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza-like illness network, which provides invaluable information about the current incidence. This information is used to provide decision support regarding prevention and response efforts. Despite the relatively rich surveillance data and the recurrent nature of seasonal influenza, forecasting the timing and intensity of seasonal influenza in the U.S. remains challenging because the form of the disease transmission process is uncertain, the disease dynamics are only partially observed, and the public health observations are noisy. Fitting a pr

SUBMITTER: Osthus D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5623938 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature