Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Nina During 2016.

ABSTRACT: In the latter half of 2016 Indonesia and Australia experienced extreme wet conditions and East Africa suffered devastating drought, which have largely been attributed to the occurrence of strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Niña. Here we examine the causes and predictability of the strong negative IOD and its impact on the development of La Niña in 2016. Analysis on atmosphere and ocean reanalyses and forecast sensitivity experiments using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system reveals that this strong negative IOD, which peaked in July-September, developed primarily by the Indian Ocean surface and subsurface conditions. The long-term trend over the last 55 years in sea surface and subsurface temperatures, which is characterised by warmi

SUBMITTER: Lim EP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5626717 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature