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A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950-2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property.Against the backdrop of a declining monsoon, the number of extreme rain events is on the rise over central India. Here the authors identify a threefold increase in widespread extreme rains over the region during 1950-2015, driven by an increasing variability of the low-level westerlies over the Arabian Sea.

SUBMITTER: Roxy MK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5626780 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.

Roxy M K MK Ghosh Subimal S Pathak Amey A Athulya R R Mujumdar Milind M Murtugudde Raghu R Terray Pascal P Rajeevan M M

Nature communications 20171003 1

Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over cent ...[more]

PMID: 28974680

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Project description:While the spatio-temporal characteristics of Indian summer monsoon precipitation and its extreme spells have been extensively studied, the northeast monsoon, which occurs from October to December (i.e., post-monsoon season) and affects the southern peninsula of India, has not received as much attention. In light of this, the present study explores the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation during the northeast monsoon, with a particular emphasis on widespread extreme precipitation events and their associated large-scale synoptic systems, using recent ensemble of high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) simulations and the Indian monsoon data assimilation and analysis (IMDAA) reanalysis. The study reveals that both models tend to underestimate the intensity and frequency of observed precipitation events, although their skills in reproducing the observed spatial patterns of both mean and extreme precipitation are quite high (r > 0.75). A substantial increase in widespread extreme precipitation events (nearly twofold), along with a 30% rise in precipitation intensity, has been observed in the recent decade compared to the 1980s, and models demonstrate a similar directional change but tend to underestimate the magnitude of observed precipitation. This increase appears to be linked to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, which, in turn, increases the water vapor in the atmosphere, ultimately supplying more moisture to the southeastern peninsular India. On the other hand, observed discrepancies in replicating some of the reported widespread impactful extreme precipitation events in the years 2007 and 2015 over the southern India region underscore the need for caution when interpreting model simulations. Low-pressure systems, such as troughs, associated with cyclonic circulations originating from the Bay of Bengal, have been identified as the primary sources of moisture fueling heavy precipitation during these events. Cluster analysis highlights varying synoptic patterns within the general framework, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced approach in simulating and forecasting extreme precipitation events. Overall, this study underscores the importance of enhancing modeling capabilities to better understand and prepare for the growing challenges posed by extreme precipitation events.

Dataset Information

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.

Publications

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.

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