Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources.

Methods

Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases.

Results

The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months a

SUBMITTER: Mercer LD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5635525 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature