Predicting the hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence using search engine query data and climate variables: an ecological study in Guangdong, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on the enhanced surveillance system, we aimed to explore whether the addition of temperate and search engine query data improves the risk prediction of HFMD.

Design

Ecological study.

Setting and participants

Information on the confirmed cases of HFMD, climate parameters and search engine query logs was collected. A total of 1.36 million HFMD cases were identified from the surveillance system during 2011-2014. Analyses were conducted at aggregate level and no confidential information was involved.

Outcome measures

A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with external variables (ARIMAX) was used to predict the

SUBMITTER: Du Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5640051 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature