Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced.

Methods and findings

A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be remo

SUBMITTER: Yukich JO 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5640964 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature