Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest.

ABSTRACT: The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. G

SUBMITTER: Loisel J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5643054 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature