A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty

SUBMITTER: Alexeeff SE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5656058 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature