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A Risk Algorithm for the Persistence of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors During College.


ABSTRACT:

Objective

The primary aims of this study are to (a) identify patterns of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) during college among students with lifetime pre-matriculation STB and (b) develop a risk-screening algorithm for persistence of pre-matriculation STB during college.

Methods

Data come from the Leuven College Surveys, a series of prospective cohort studies of all incoming KU Leuven University freshmen. In the academic year 2012-2013, 4,889 incoming freshmen (73.2% response rate) provided baseline data on sociodemographic variables, childhood-adolescent traumatic experiences, 12-month stressful experiences, 12-month mental disorders, 12-month STB, and severity markers of pre-matriculation STB. A total of 2,566 students (69.3% conditional response rate) participated in 12- and 24-month follow-up surveys during the first 2 college years.

Results

Thirteen percent (weighted n = 535) of incoming freshmen reported lifetime pre-matriculation STB. Of those, 28.0% reported 12-month STB in 1 follow-up assessment, and another 27.7%, in both follow-up assessments. High persistence of STB (ie, 12-month STB in 2 follow-up assessments) was most strongly associated with severity markers of pre-matriculation STB, with odds ratios in the 2.4-10.3 range and population attributable risk proportions between 9.2% and 50.8%. When the aim was for less than 50% of false-positive cases (positive predictive value = 54.4%), a multivariate predictive risk algorithm (cross-validated area under the curve = 0.79) situated 59.9% of highly persistent cases among the 30% respondents with highest baseline predicted risk.

Conclusions

An individualized web-based screening approach is a promising strategy to identify students at the time of university entrance who may be at high risk for STB persistence during their academic career.

SUBMITTER: Mortier P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5664942 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Risk Algorithm for the Persistence of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors During College.

Mortier Philippe P   Kiekens Glenn G   Auerbach Randy P RP   Cuijpers Pim P   Demyttenaere Koen K   Green Jennifer G JG   Kessler Ronald C RC   Nock Matthew K MK   Zaslavsky Alan M AM   Bruffaerts Ronny R  

The Journal of clinical psychiatry 20170701 7


<h4>Objective</h4>The primary aims of this study are to (a) identify patterns of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) during college among students with lifetime pre-matriculation STB and (b) develop a risk-screening algorithm for persistence of pre-matriculation STB during college.<h4>Methods</h4>Data come from the Leuven College Surveys, a series of prospective cohort studies of all incoming KU Leuven University freshmen. In the academic year 2012-2013, 4,889 incoming freshmen (73.2% response  ...[more]

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