Project description:A well-developed theoretical literature - dating back at least to Nordhaus (1969) - has analyzed optimal patent policy design. We re-present the core trade-off of the Nordhaus model and highlight an empirical question which emerges from the Nordhaus framework as a key input into optimal patent policy design: namely, what is the elasticity of R&D investment with respect to the patent term? We then review the - surprisingly small - body of empirical evidence that has been developed on this question over the nearly half century since the publication of Nordhaus's book.
Project description:When effort is observable to peers, students may try to avoid social penalties by conforming to prevailing norms. To test this hypothesis, we first consider a natural experiment that introduced a performance leaderboard into computer-based high school courses. The result was a 24 percent performance decline. The decline appears to be driven by a desire to avoid the leaderboard; top performing students prior to the change, those most at risk of appearing on the leaderboard, had a 40 percent performance decline, while poor performing students improved slightly. We next consider a field experiment that offered students complimentary access to an online SAT preparatory course. Sign-up forms differed randomly across students only in whether they said the decision would be kept private from classmates. In nonhonors classes, sign-up was 11 percentage points lower when decisions were public rather than private. Honors class sign-up was unaffected. For students taking honors and nonhonors classes, the response depended on which peers they were with at the time of the offer, and thus to whom their decision would be revealed. When offered the course in a nonhonors class (where peer sign-up rates are low), they were 15 percentage points less likely to sign up if the decision was public. But when offered the course in an honors class (where peer sign-up rates are high), they were 8 percentage points more likely to sign up if the decision was public. Thus, students are highly responsive to their peers are the prevailing norm when they make decisions.
Project description:IntroductionThe adoption of precision medicine (PM) has been limited in practice to date, and yet its promise has attracted research investments. Developing foundational economic approaches for directing proper use of PM and stimulating growth in this area from multiple perspectives is thus quite timely.MethodsBuilding on our previously developed expected value of individualized care (EVIC) framework, we conceptualize new decision-relevant metrics to better understand and forecast the expected value of PM. Several aspects of behavior at the patient, physician, and payer levels are considered that can inform the rate and manner in which PM innovations diffuse throughout the relevant population. We illustrate this framework and the methods using a retrospective evaluation of the use of OncotypeDx genomic test among breast cancer patients.ResultsThe enriched metrics can help inform many facets of PM decision making, such as evaluating alternative reimbursement levels for PM tests, implementation and education programs for physicians and patients, and decisions around research investments by manufacturers and public entities. We replicated prior published results on evaluation of OncotypeDx among breast cancer patients but also illustrated that those results are based on assumptions that are often not met in practice. Instead, we show how incorporating more practical aspects of behavior around PM could lead to drastically different estimates of value.ConclusionWe believe that the framework and the methods presented can provide decision makers with more decision-relevant tools to explore the value of PM. There is a growing recognition that data on adoption is important to decision makers. More research is needed to develop prediction models for potential diffusion of PM technologies.
Project description:This paper serves as an introduction to a Special Issue (SI) of the Journal of Forest Policy and Economics dedicated to forest investment and finance. The Special Issue stemmed from an International Forest Business Conference (IFBC2018) held in Poland on 6-8 June 2018. It includes papers based on speeches at that conference, as well as others on similar topics not presented at the conference. Topics addressed in this Special Issue include timberland investments, forest finance, intensively managed plantations, risk, uncertainty and decision-making, business structures and investment strategy, timber prices and forecasts, forestry contractors, and taxes. Details papers on these subjects follow in this Special Issue. Our finance research overview here provides a historical background and summary of forest investments and finance, focusing on forest equity investments made by institutional investors and in forestry real estate investment trusts, not including public lands or individual small private forest landowners. Forest assets as an investment class have expanded due to analytical advances, ownership changes, globalized markets, and sustainable forestry factors. Key components affecting forestry investments are expected asset returns, portfolio diversification, inflation hedge, and liquidity and natural risks. Topics detailed in this Special Issue include timberland investments, forest finance, intensively managed plantations, risk, uncertainty and decision-making, business structures and investment strategy, timber prices and forecasts, forestry contractors, and taxes. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps regarding forest investments for future research.
Project description:We investigate whether patents on human genes have affected follow-on scientific research and product development. Using administrative data on successful and unsuccessful patent applications submitted to the US Patent and Trademark Office, we link the exact gene sequences claimed in each application with data measuring follow-on scientific research and commercial investments. Using this data, we document novel evidence of selection into patenting: patented genes appear more valuable-prior to being patented-than non-patented genes. This evidence of selection motivates two quasi-experimental approaches, both of which suggest that on average gene patents have had no quantitatively important effect on follow-on innovation.
Project description:BackgroundThe isolation of artemisinin in 1971 heralded the beginning of a new era in antimalarial drug therapy, and artemisinin-based combination therapies are currently the mainstay of malaria treatment worldwide. Artemisinin-related studies have been extensively and intensively executed in the last few decades. However, although many purely technological reviews have been completed in this field, studies on artemisinin from the perspective of patents are still very limited. In terms of the importance of patents for academic research and commercial development, this study aims to reveal the overall patent landscape of artemisinin in the temporal, spatial, and technological dimensions. This work may provide a useful reference for relevant decision-making by researchers, investors, and policymakers.MethodsAll available patent data relevant to artemisinin derivatives and artemisinin-based drug combinations developed for use in various therapeutic areas were collected from the Derwent Innovation database. Descriptive statistics and citation analyses were used to analyze the patent landscape.ResultsA total of 4594 patent documents and 1450 simple patent families from 1986 to 2019 were analyzed. A comprehensive patent landscape of artemisinin is presented from the aspects of time trends, filing countries, patent ownership, co-patents, technological categories, therapeutic areas, and citation networks and pathways.ConclusionsChina and the United States are mainly responsible for the dramatic increase of artemisinin patents over the last three decades. From the point of view of patents, notable technological issues on artemisinin are chemical and biological synthesis, novel combinations, new formulations and administration routes, drug repositioning, and minimizing the resistance. Furthermore, a critical challenge lies in how to stimulate the industry to develop artemisinin-related drugs by government regulation and public-private partnership.
Project description:BackgroundResearch investments are essential to address the burden of disease, however allocation of limited resources is poorly documented. We systematically reviewed the investments awarded by funding organisations to UK institutions and their global partners for infectious disease research.Methodology/principal findingsPublic and philanthropic investments for the period 1997 to 2010 were included. We categorised studies by infectious disease, cross-cutting theme, and by research and development value chain, reflecting the type of science. We identified 6165 funded studies, with a total research investment of UK £2.6 billion. Public organisations provided £1.4 billion (54.0%) of investments compared with £1.1 billion (42.4%) by philanthropic organisations. Global health studies represented an investment of £928 million (35.7%). The Wellcome Trust was the leading investor with £688 million (26.5%), closely followed by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) with £673 million (25.9%). Funding over time was volatile, ranging from ∼£40 million to ∼£160 million per year for philanthropic organisations and ∼£30 million to ∼£230 million for public funders.Conclusions/significanceInfectious disease research funding requires global coordination and strategic long-term vision. Our analysis demonstrates the diversity and inconsistent patterns in investment, with volatility in annual funding amounts and limited investment for product development and clinical trials.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The relationship between research funding across therapeutic areas and the burden of disease in Norway has not been investigated. Further, few studies have looked at the association between national research investments and the global disease burden. The aim of the present study was to analyze the correlation between a significant part of Norwegian investment in health research and the burden of disease across therapeutic areas, using both Norwegian and global burden of disease estimates. METHODS:We used research investment records for 2012 from the Research Council of Norway, and the investment records distributed through liaison committees between regional health authorities and universities. Both were classified by the Health Research Classification System (HRCS). Furthermore, we used the years of life lost and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for Norway and globally from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We created a matrix to match the expenditures by HRCS with the values from the Global Burden of Disease project. RESULTS:Disease-specific research funding increased with the Norwegian burden of disease measured as years of life lost (correlation coefficient?=?0.73). Similar findings were done when the Norwegian disease burden was measured as DALYs (correlation coefficient?=?0.62). The correlation between research funding and the global disease burden was low both when years of life lost (correlation coefficient?=?0.11) and DALYs (correlation coefficient?=?0.12) were used. Generally, when the disease burden was relatively high in Norway compared with the rest of the world, research investments were also high. CONCLUSIONS:Across therapeutic areas, the Norwegian research investments appeared aligned with the Norwegian disease burden. The correlation between the Norwegian research investments and the global disease burden was much lower.