Dataset Information

Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins.

ABSTRACT: The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2021~2100 compared to those during 1961~2005. Precipitation shows an increasing trend in the TRB, but which decreases and then increases in the YRB, with a turning point in the middle of twenty-first Century. The ranges in annual precipitation increase with the increase in the scenario emissions in the future. Note that the Tarim River Basin is more vulnerable to the impact of emissions, especially for annual or spring and winter precipitation. Based on the uncertainty of CMIP5 data, the links between future precipitation changes and the elevation and relief amplitude were evaluated. The change of precipitation decreases with elevation, relief amplitude in the TRB, while it increases with elevation but decreases with relief amplitude in the YRB.

SUBMITTER: Xue L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5680305 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins.

Xue Lianqing L Zhu Boli B Yang Changbing C Wei Guanghui G Meng Xianyong X Long Aihua A Yang Guang G

Scientific reports 20171109 1

The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for ...[more]

PMID: 29123164

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Project description:Understanding spatiotemporal variability in precipitation and temperature and their future projections is critical for assessing environmental hazards and planning long-term mitigation and adaptation. In this study, 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were employed to project the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, maximum air temperature (Tmax), and minimum air temperature (Tmin) in Bangladesh. The GCM projections were bias-corrected using the Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) technique. Using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean of the bias-corrected dataset, the expected changes for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were evaluated for the near (2015-2044), mid (2045-2074), and far (2075-2100) futures in comparison to the historical period (1985-2014). In the far future, the anticipated average annual precipitation increased by 9.48%, 13.63%, 21.07%, and 30.90%, while the average Tmax (Tmin) rose by 1.09 (1.17), 1.60 (1.91), 2.12 (2.80), and 2.99 (3.69) °C for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. According to predictions for the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the distant future, there is expected to be a substantial rise in precipitation (41.98%) during the post-monsoon season. In contrast, winter precipitation was predicted to decrease most (11.12%) in the mid-future for SSP3-7.0, while to increase most (15.62%) in the far-future for SSP1-2.6. Tmax (Tmin) was predicted to rise most in the winter and least in the monsoon for all periods and scenarios. Tmin increased more rapidly than Tmax in all seasons for all SSPs. The projected changes could lead to more frequent and severe flooding, landslides, and negative impacts on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. The study highlights the need for localized and context-specific adaptation strategies as different regions of Bangladesh will be affected differently by these changes.

Project description:Selecting appropriate global climate models (GCMs) is crucial for minimizing uncertainty in regional climate projections under future scenarios. Previous studies have predominantly assessed the modeling capability of GCMs for regional precipitation climatology and its long-term patterns based on annual and seasonal precipitation data. Building upon these, we primally evaluated the performance of five GCMs from phase 3b of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b) in simulating precipitation concentration and its variations in the Southwest River Basin (SWRB) of China using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The results indicate that: (1) The 5 GCMs generally capture the spatial distribution of annual average precipitation in the SWRB but significantly overestimate its magnitude, with a maximum regional average deviation of 207.80 mm. Furthermore, all models tend to overestimate the overall drying trend in the SWRB and show limited capability in simulating interdecadal variations of annual precipitation. (2) While the 5 GCMs reasonably simulate the spatial distribution of annual average PCI in the SWRB, they tend to overestimate its values, with a maximum regional average deviation of 1.54. Additionally, their simulation performance in capturing PCI trends and interdecadal variations is also limited. (3) The 5 GCMs tend to overestimate seasonal precipitation in the SWRB, with the best simulation performance for the distribution of autumn precipitation, followed by spring and summer, and the poorest for winter. Significant differences exist in the simulation performance of the models for seasonal precipitation proportions, which result in discrepancies in the models' representation of PCI. Moreover, the models' poor simulation performance of PCI trends is partly due to their inadequate modeling of trends in seasonal precipitation proportions. The findings will contribute to laying the foundation for meteorological hydrological research and water resource management in the SWRB.

Dataset Information

Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins.

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Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins.

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