Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most s

SUBMITTER: Freer JJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5680362 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature