Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

ABSTRACT: Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerabl

SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Salguero R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5703285 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature