Dynamic Regimes of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing.

ABSTRACT: El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009-2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic re

SUBMITTER: Oluwole OSA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5703710 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature