Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

ABSTRACT: The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to informing the choice of control strategies using spatio-temporal models within the Bayesian framework. We illustrate the approach for the case of strategies based on pre-emptive removal of individual hosts. For an exemplar model, using simulated data and historic data on an epidemic of Asiatic citrus c

SUBMITTER: Adrakey HK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5721149 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature